Data Module · Visual Intelligence
A Diamond Is
Not Forever
De Beers, Lab-Grown Disruption & the Collapse of Africa’s Diamond Model
Frances Gerety was a copywriter at N.W. Ayer. She stayed late one night in 1947 and wrote four words on a scrap of paper. “A Diamond Is Forever.” It became the most successful advertising slogan of the twentieth century. On February 20, 2026, Anglo American posted a $3.7 billion loss and put De Beers up for sale. The four words are still on the building.
$0.0B
Writedowns (3 years)
-0%
Lab-grown price collapse
~0%
US rings now lab-grown
0 yrs
De Beers monopoly
$0.0B
What De Beers is worth
001 · The Collapse
$15.6B → $2.3B. Where the value went.
Anglo wrote it down. Then wrote it down again. Then again. The 2021 recovery is the cruelest bar on this chart — it let everyone believe the worst was over.
Source: Anglo American financial results (2018–2026). Enterprise value estimates from analyst consensus.
002 · The Monopoly Dissolves
125 years of market share. Watch the red rise.
For a hundred years, if you wanted a diamond, you asked De Beers. The black band is that century. The red is what’s eating it. Not war, not regulation, not scandal. A machine in a Chinese factory that grows the same stone in two weeks.
Source: Paul Zimnisky, Rapaport, KP Statistics, McKinsey. Pre-2000 market share approximate.
003 · The Price Collapse
Two lines. One falling. One crashing.
A gemologist at GIA confirmed it: there is no test that can tell them apart. The shaded area between these two lines is the last thing De Beers is selling — the belief that one kind of carbon is more romantic than another.
004 · The Engagement Ring
Lab-grown is taking the symbol De Beers invented.
De Beers invented the engagement diamond as a marketing tool in the 1930s. It worked for ninety years. Then a generation arrived that checks the price before the romance. The red bar is them.
Source: McKinsey (2023), Paul Zimnisky. US market, by volume.
005 · The Producers
The countries that live and die by the stone.
Botswana’s bubble pulses because it should. Eighty percent of the country’s exports are diamonds. S&P downgraded the sovereign credit rating. The World Bank says the economy contracts 3% this year. Botswana was the poorest country in the world at independence. Diamonds made it middle-income. Now look at the bubble.
Source: KP Statistics, World Bank, OEC. Threat = DWL composite of dependency, trajectory, diversification.
006 · Botswana
The diamond miracle, unwinding.
Seven billion dollars in 2021. Two billion in 2024. That’s not a dip. The Debswana mines cut production by 40%. The government borrowed internationally for the first time. Public debt crossed 29% of GDP. The red area is what remains of the diamond miracle.
Sources: OEC, KP Statistics, AfDB, World Bank, IMF Article IV 2024.
007 · 138 Years
1869 — 2026
1869
Star of South Africa found. Diamond rush begins.
1888
Cecil Rhodes founds De Beers. Controls all SA mining.
1902
Rhodes dies. De Beers controls 90% of world production.
1927
Ernest Oppenheimer builds global cartel through CSO.
1947
“A Diamond Is Forever.” Most successful ad slogan of 20th century.
1980s
Peak monopoly: 85–90% of global rough distribution.
1990s
Russia breaks cartel. Australia separates. Monopoly fractures.
2003
Kimberley Process launched. Blood diamond scandal.
2013
Market forces drive prices for first time in 100 years.
2023
Anglo writes down De Beers $1.56B. Value: $9.2B.
2024
Second writedown $2.9B. Anglo exits diamonds.
2025
Third writedown $2.3B. EBITDA: -$511M. Value: $2.3B.
2026
Anglo reports $3.7B net loss (Feb 20). Sale advanced.
008 · Connected Intelligence
The pattern.
The other half. 4 million dead. The Kimberley Process designed to produce a statistic, not solve a problem.
China produces the lab-grown killing Botswana. China also builds the escape infrastructure. The disruptor and the rescuer.
Gold replaced diamonds as the preferred conflict mineral. Wagner in CAR — same countries, same extraction model.
Gas as the escape route from diamond dependency. Nigeria’s $20B deal and Angola’s oil pivot.
Sources & Open Data
Anglo American / De Beers Group — Preliminary Financial Results 2025 (Feb 20, 2026)
World Bank Open Data — Botswana GDP series, debt-to-GDP ratios (data.worldbank.org)
UN Comtrade — Diamond trade flows HS 7102 (comtrade.un.org)
Kimberley Process — Global production statistics 2023
IMF — Botswana Article IV Consultation 2024
AfDB — Botswana Economic Outlook (dataportal.opendataforafrica.org)
McKinsey & Company — Gen Z/Millennial diamond purchasing data (2023)
OEC — Botswana diamond export partner analysis (oec.world)
Paul Zimnisky / Rapaport — Production data, monopoly history
ACLED — Conflict events in diamond-producing regions (acleddata.com)
Open Data Layer
World Bank (data.worldbank.org) — GDP, debt, economic indicators
UN Comtrade (comtrade.un.org) — Diamond trade flows (HS 7102)
Kimberley Process (kimberleyprocess.com) — Production stats by country
ACLED (acleddata.com) — Conflict events in mining regions
Copernicus (scihub.copernicus.eu) — 10m satellite imagery of mines
AfDB Portal (dataportal.opendataforafrica.org) — Africa-specific economics
OEC (oec.world) — Trade visualisation
MS Building Footprints (github.com/microsoft/GlobalMLBuildingFootprints) — Settlement detection near mines
Data compilation, visualisation & analysis: Dancing with Lions
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