Module 138 · Energy & Geopolitical Intelligence
The Atlantic Spine
The Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline — 5,660 km along the Atlantic coast, 13 countries, $25 billion. The largest energy infrastructure project in African history. And it is racing against Algeria’s Trans-Saharan rival for the same Nigerian gas and the same European market.
5,660 km
Pipeline length
$25B
Estimated cost
30 bcm/yr
Capacity
13+3
Countries
~400M
People served
Click markers for country details. Toggle rival route with checkbox. Satellite imagery: Mapbox. Route data: NNPCL, ONHYM, ECOWAS feasibility studies.
001 · The Race
Atlantic vs. Saharan
Two pipelines competing for the same Nigerian gas and the same European market. The Atlantic route is longer and more expensive. The Saharan route is shorter but crosses the world’s most volatile conflict zone.
| Metric | NMGP — Atlantic Route | TSGP — Trans-Saharan |
|---|---|---|
| Length | 5,660 km (offshore + coastal) | 4,128 km (overland) |
| Estimated cost | $25 billion | $13 billion |
| Capacity | 30 bcm/year | 30 bcm/year |
| Countries crossed | 13 (coastal West Africa) | 3 (Nigeria, Niger, Algeria) |
| Route type | Offshore/coastal — Atlantic | Overland — Sahara/Sahel |
| European connection | Maghreb–Europe Pipeline (Morocco → Spain) | Transmed (Algeria → Italy) + Medgaz (Algeria → Spain) |
| Security risk | Lower — avoids Sahel conflict zone | Higher — crosses AES military junta territory |
| Lead partners | NNPCL + ONHYM (Morocco) | NNPC + Sonatrach (Algeria) |
| Existing infrastructure | Extends WAGP (678 km, operational since 2011) | Algerian domestic network 70%+ built |
| European backers | EIB, IsDB, OPEC Fund, UAE | Italy (Eni/Sasol via Hybla project) |
| US interest | Trump admin expressed interest (April 2025) | Aligned with Russian-leaning security corridor |
| Construction status | Phase 1 launched (Morocco segment, late 2025) | Sonatrach to start Niger section post-Ramadan 2026 |
| Beneficiary population | ~400 million across 16 countries | ~300 million (mainly European end-users) |
| Geopolitical alignment | Pro-Western: US ally, Abraham Accords signatory | AES/Wagner/Russian security architecture |
002 · The Route
13 countries. 3 languages. One pipeline.
Lagos to Tangier. Anglophone, francophone, and lusophone Africa in a single infrastructure corridor. Plus three landlocked countries via internal branches.
| Country | Pop. | Electricity | Language | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 230M | 55% electricity access | Anglophone | Source — Niger Delta gas reserves (206.53 tcf proven) |
| Benin | 13.7M | 42% electricity access | Francophone | Transit — coastal passage, gas delivery lateral |
| Togo | 9M | 54% electricity access | Francophone | Transit — SOTOGAZ signed MoU with NNPCL and ONHYM (July 2025) |
| Ghana | 34M | 85% electricity access | Anglophone | Transit + major consumer — end point of existing WAGP at Takoradi |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 28.9M | 70% electricity access | Francophone | Transit + industrial consumer — aluminium processing potential |
| Liberia | 5.4M | 28% electricity access | Anglophone | Transit — one of the lowest electrification rates on the route |
| Sierra Leone | 8.8M | 26% electricity access | Anglophone | Transit — extremely low energy access |
| Guinea | 14.2M | 44% electricity access | Francophone | Transit — bauxite powerhouse, gas needed for processing |
| Guinea-Bissau | 2.1M | 33% electricity access | Lusophone | Transit — smallest economy on the route |
| The Gambia | 2.7M | 62% electricity access | Anglophone | Transit — small but strategically located |
| Senegal | 18M | 73% electricity access | Francophone | Phase 1 country — emerging gas producer (GTA field) |
| Mauritania | 4.9M | 47% electricity access | Francophone | Phase 1 country — GTA + BirAllah fields, northern hinge |
| Morocco | 37.8M | 100% electricity access | Bilingual | Terminus + European gateway — connects to Maghreb–Europe Pipeline |
+ 3 landlocked countries via internal branches
003 · The Geopolitics
More than a pipeline. An alignment map.
The Algeria Rivalry
Algeria closed the Maghreb–Europe Pipeline through Morocco in October 2021, cutting gas supply. The NMGP would permanently bypass Algeria as a transit country for gas reaching Europe from sub-Saharan Africa.
The Zero-Sum Game
Analysts widely agree there is only enough Nigerian gas and European demand to justify one major trans-continental pipeline. The NMGP and TSGP are competing for the same resource and the same market.
ECOWAS Integration
The pipeline is formally an ECOWAS project — part of Morocco's broader Atlantic Initiative. Despite Morocco not being an ECOWAS member, the pipeline embeds it as the economic terminus of the West African bloc.
US Strategic Interest
In April 2025, Nigeria's Finance Minister reported the Trump administration had expressed interest in investing — aligning with US strategy to diversify European gas supply away from Russian-aligned corridors.
Western Sahara
The Moroccan segment runs from Nador (northeast) through Dakhla (southwest) — through territory internationally disputed as Western Sahara but administered by Morocco. US, Spain, and France have all recognised Moroccan sovereignty since 2020–2024.
The AES Risk
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — military juntas in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso — have expelled Western military presence in favour of Russian security contractors (Wagner/Africa Corps). The rival TSGP must cross AES territory.
004 · Timeline
1982 — 2026
1982
ECOWAS proposes West African gas pipeline network
2002
Algeria and Nigeria sign MoU for Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP)
2009
TSGP intergovernmental agreement signed (Nigeria–Niger–Algeria)
2011
West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) becomes operational: Lagos → Ghana, 678 km
Dec 2016
NNPC and ONHYM sign agreement for Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP)
May 2017
Nigeria and Morocco sign gas pipeline and fertiliser deals
Aug 2017
Feasibility study launched. Morocco argues Atlantic route avoids Sahel militancy
Jan 2019
Feasibility study completed. Penspen contracted for FEED Phase I
Aug 2019
NMGP presented to ECOWAS — positive reception
Mar 2020
FEED Phase II begins
Oct 2021
Algeria closes Maghreb–Europe Pipeline through Morocco — cuts gas supply to Rabat
May 2022
OPEC Fund contributes $14.3M for FEED Phase II. WorleyParsons/Intecsea contracted. ILF + DORIS for project management
Sep 2022
MoU signed by NNPC, ONHYM, and ECOWAS energy director
Jun 2023
Nigeria, Morocco, and transit countries sign multiple agreements
Jul 2023
Niger military coup — threatens both pipeline projects
Dec 2024
ECOWAS 66th summit: intergovernmental agreement approved. Countries assigned roles
Late 2024
Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (Mauritania/Senegal) reaches first gas
Apr 2025
Trump administration expresses interest in investing in NMGP
May 2025
Minister Benali confirms route finalised. Special-purpose company being established
Jul 2025
Togo formally joins as public partner (SOTOGAZ). Morocco segment launch announced: $6B, Nador → Dakhla
Sep 2025
Project company created. UAE, EIB, IsDB, OPEC Fund join financing pool. Final investment decision targeted end 2025
Feb 2026
Algeria–Niger diplomatic thaw. Sonatrach to build Niger section of rival TSGP post-Ramadan. Pipeline race accelerates
Sources & Attribution
NNPCL / ONHYM
Joint project owners — Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Morocco's Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines
Maroc.ma
Official Moroccan government portal — Minister Benali statements, May 2025
Global Energy Monitor
Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project profile
ECOWAS
66th Summit intergovernmental agreement, December 2024
OPEC Fund
FEED Phase II financing ($14.3M), 2022
IntelliNews
Project advances toward construction phase, August 2025
Pipeline Technology Journal
Tenders set to launch in 2025
Energy Capital & Power
Morocco segment details — 1,672 km, Phase 1
Geopolitical Monitor
Mauritania's role analysis, November 2025
Al Majalla
TSGP challenges and stakes analysis
The Africa Report
Algeria rivalry, Trans-Saharan pipeline competition
Enerdata
Niger–Algeria diplomatic thaw, February 2026
Ecofin Agency
Algeria–Morocco pipeline duel editorial
APA News
Project company creation, UAE financing, September 2025
The Arab Weekly
Morocco breaks ground, Nador–Dakhla segment
Universidad de Navarra
TSGP vs NMGP comparative analysis
Wikipedia
West African Gas Pipeline, Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, WAGP
Data visualisation, cartography, and analysis: Dancing with Lions
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