Data Module · Geopolitical & Economic Intelligence
The Silk Road
Into Africa
$182.3 billion in loans. 52 countries signed. 10,000km of railways. The largest infrastructure programme in human history, mapped and measured.
$0.0B
Loans to Africa (2000–2023)
$0.0B
BRI engagement 2025 (+283%)
0
African countries signed
0+
km railways built
~0
ports built or upgraded
001 · The Borrowers
Ten countries hold 70% of the debt.
Angola alone owes $42.6 billion. Kenya took $5 billion for a railway that runs below capacity. Zambia defaulted. Djibouti handed over 57% of its sovereign debt for a port and a military base. The bubble sizes tell the story faster than the numbers.
Bubble size = cumulative loan value (2000–2023). Source: Boston University CARI. © Dancing with Lions
002 · Where The Money Goes
Energy and transport. Everything else is footnotes.
Two sectors account for 63% of all Chinese lending to Africa. Energy is oil-backed \u2014 Angola pledged crude to pay for dams and refineries. Transport is the visible legacy: railways that cut journey times in half, ports that shift trade gravity, expressways that charge tolls for 27 years. ICT is the quieter bet \u2014 Huawei built the backbone, the submarine cables, the surveillance infrastructure.
Hover the chart to explore sectors
Source: Boston University CARI (2000–2023). © Dancing with Lions
003 · The Surge
$61.2 billion in 2025. Nobody saw it coming.
After COVID cratered lending and Zambia became the first African country to default on sovereign debt, Western analysts wrote the BRI obituary. China pivoted to "small and beautiful" projects. The bars went grey. Then Nigeria signed a $20 billion gas deal and everything changed. Africa BRI engagement jumped 283% in a single year. The programme is not dying. It is mutating.
Source: Green Finance & Development Center / Griffith Asia Institute. Engagement = investment + construction. © Dancing with Lions
004 · The Projects
Railways, ports, bridges, gas. Click to open.
A $20 billion gas park in Nigeria. A railway across East Africa that cut freight times by two-thirds. A bridge in Mozambique that replaced a ferry and 160km of unpaved road. A toll expressway in Nairobi where the revenue flows to a Chinese operator for 27 years. A port in Djibouti with a naval base next door.
Ogidigben Gas Park
Nigeria · Under construction
$20B
Mombasa–Nairobi SGR
Kenya · 2017
$5B
Addis–Djibouti Rail
Ethiopia–Djibouti · 2018
$4.5B
Tanzania SGR
Tanzania · Under construction
$2.7B
Lekki Deepwater Port
Nigeria · 2023
$1.5B
Kribi Deepwater Port
Cameroon · 2018
$1.3B
Maputo–Katembe Bridge
Mozambique · 2018
$0.786B
Nairobi Expressway
Kenya · 2022
$0.668B
Doraleh Port
Djibouti · 2017
$0.59B
Click to expand. Source: Boston University, Green Finance & Development Center. © Dancing with Lions
005 · The Debt Question
Africa owes three times more to Wall Street than to Beijing.
The "debt trap diplomacy" narrative dominates Western media. The data tells a more complicated story. Private Western creditors hold 35% of African external debt at double the interest rate China charges. No Chinese asset seizures have been confirmed anywhere in Africa. China has cancelled $3.4 billion in African loans. But nine African countries are in debt distress, $35 billion in repayments were due in 2025, and the power asymmetry is real. Both things are true simultaneously.
Eurobonds, commercial banks. 3× more than China. Double the interest rate.
Concessional rates but conditionality.
France, Japan, India, Gulf states.
~12% of Africa's external debt.
0
Assets seized by China in Africa
$3.4B
Chinese debt cancelled (2000–2019)
Sources: Debt Justice Group (2022), Boston University CARI, World Bank, Rhodium Group. © Dancing with Lions
006 · The Pattern
In 2017, a Chinese-built railway opened between Mombasa and Nairobi. Journey time dropped from ten hours to four. Kenya borrowed $5 billion to build it. Phase 2, from Nairobi to Uganda, was supposed to follow. It never materialised. Neither country could service the existing debt.
In Djibouti, a country smaller than Belize, China built a port, stationed its only African military base, and acquired 57% of the nation's sovereign debt. The base sits adjacent to the American one. The port handles traffic from the Addis Ababa\u2013Djibouti railway \u2014 also Chinese-built. The geography is not accidental. Bab el-Mandeb is one of six chokepoints that control global maritime trade.
The pattern repeats. Infrastructure arrives. Debt follows. Influence accumulates. The counter-narrative also repeats: Western creditors charge higher interest, impose structural adjustment, and hold three times the debt. No Chinese port has been seized. $3.4 billion in loans have been cancelled outright.
In 2025, while the West debated whether BRI was dead, China signed $61.2 billion in new African deals. A single Nigerian gas contract was worth $20 billion. Chinese companies began relocating factories to Africa \u2014 not for African markets, but to bypass American tariffs. The goods would be manufactured in Ethiopia, stamped "Made in Africa," and shipped to consumers in Ohio.
The Silk Road is not a metaphor. It is 10,000 kilometres of railway, 100 ports, 66,000 kilometres of power lines, and a military base at the mouth of the Red Sea. The continent's infrastructure is being built. The question was never whether. It was by whom, and on what terms.
007 · Timeline
2000 — 2025
2000
Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) established in Beijing. Framework for bilateral engagement.
2000–12
China issues $182.3B in loans to 49 African countries. Energy and transport dominate. Angola alone: $42.6B.
2013
Xi Jinping launches Belt and Road Initiative. Africa formally integrated as key corridor.
2013–18
Peak lending. $10B+ annually. Kenya SGR, Addis–Djibouti rail, Maputo bridge, Lekki port all built.
2016
China opens first permanent overseas military base — Djibouti. Adjacent to Doraleh port.
2017
Kenya SGR opens. $5B. Mombasa to Nairobi in 4hrs (was 10). Phase 2 never materialises.
2018
Addis–Djibouti railway opens. First electrified transnational rail in East Africa. Maputo–Katembe bridge opens — Africa's longest.
2019–20
COVID + debt crisis. Lending collapses. Zambia defaults — first African sovereign default. China forgives 23 interest-free loans to 17 African nations.
2021–22
'Small and beautiful' pivot. Deal sizes shrink. Energy lending halts. Focus shifts to risk mitigation.
2023
Lending recovers: $4.61B (largest since 2019). Lekki Deepwater Port opens. Mining surges to $7.8B.
2024
FOCAC Beijing Summit: Xi pledges ¥360B ($50.7B) over 3 years. FDI into Africa +86%.
2025
Record year. $61.2B Africa engagement (+283%). Nigeria $20B gas deal. Private sector leads. Manufacturing shifts to bypass US tariffs.
The debt-trap narrative assumes Africa has no agency. The cheerleader narrative assumes China has no self-interest. The data sits between both stories, uncomfortable and specific.
008 · Connected Intelligence
The pattern continues.
Nigeria's $20B gas park and the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline share the same geography. Two competing visions for the same molecule: one flows north to Europe via Morocco, the other flows east to Chinese industrial processing.
China builds infrastructure. Russia sends mercenaries. In the Sahel, AES juntas expelled Western forces and welcomed both. Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger receive Wagner fighters and Chinese loans simultaneously.
Chinese infrastructure requires stability. The Sahel has none. Railways and power grids mean nothing if the state cannot secure the corridor. JNIM controls 50% of Mali. China's investment is a bet that the state will survive.
Sources & Attribution
Data compilation, cartography, and analysis: Dancing with Lions
© Dancing with Lions 2026