Module 151 · Conservation Economics
The Gorongosa
Resurrection
Civil war killed a million people and 95% of the wildlife. One man spent $100 million. Nature did the rest. Ten thousand animals became 110,000. Six lions became two hundred. The most dramatic wildlife recovery story in modern conservation.
0k+
animals recovered
0×
lion population increase
0
employees (99% mozambican)
0M+
$ invested by carr
0k
hectares protected
When I first came here in 2004, I could drive around with my Mozambican friends all day long, and if we were lucky maybe we’d see one baboon, or one warthog. Now we drive around and it’s an ocean of wildlife. Come around the corner, there’s a herd of elephants. Go the other direction, there’s some lion cubs. Ten thousand waterbuck. And I say to myself: you know what? Nature can rebound.
Greg Carr, 60 Minutes, 2022
001 · The Landscape
Central Mozambique. The Rift Valley. A million acres.
Gorongosa sits where Africa’s Great Rift Valley meets the Mozambican coast. Lake Urema floods and retreats with the seasons, creating one of the most productive ecosystems in southern Africa. Mount Gorongosa rises 1,863 metres above the valley floor — a sky island whose rainforest feeds every river in the park. The fundamentals were intact: rivers flowing, soil alive, grass growing. All that was missing was the animals.
002 · The Arc
From Eden to silence to ocean of wildlife. Sixty-five years.
Two wars, a cyclone, a pandemic, and an insurgency. Any one of them could have ended the story. None of them did. The fundamentals — intact habitat, flowing rivers, fertile soil — survived every human catastrophe. When the killing stopped, nature knew what to do. The question was never whether Gorongosa could recover. It was whether anyone would give it the chance.
Park established by Portugal. "Eden of Africa." Peak wildlife populations.
Mozambique independence war begins. Park becomes supply route.
Civil war erupts. Both sides hunt wildlife for food and ivory revenue. 15 years of devastation.
Peace agreement. War killed ~1M people. Park is silent — mines, snares, no animals.
First aerial census: 90-99% of large mammals gone. Elephants 2,500→~200. Lions to single digits.
Greg Carr meets President Chissano. Spends 2 years studying Mozambique.
Gorongosa Restoration Project launches. 20-year PPP with government. 20,000 snares removed.
First herbivore reintroductions: 200 buffalo, 200 wildebeest, zebra arrive.
New civil conflict erupts around park. Renamo insurgents operate in buffer zone.
E.O. Wilson visits, calls Gorongosa "a window into eternity." Biodiversity Lab founded.
Agreement extended 25 more years (to 2043). Boundaries expanded to include Mt Gorongosa.
Cyclone Idai devastates region. 100,000 homes destroyed. Park infrastructure damaged.
60 Minutes returns. Carr: "Nature can rebound." 100,000+ animals documented.
Aerial survey: 110,000+ animals, exceeding pre-war numbers. BBVA Foundation Award.
Lions 6→210+. Elephants ~200→800+. Wild dogs 0→200+. Buffalo ~100→1,900+.
003 · The Numbers
Every species that survived came back. Every species reintroduced stayed.
The formula was not complicated. Step one: remove 20,000 snares. Step two: reintroduce herbivores — 200 buffalo, 200 wildebeest, zebra. Step three: when you have enough herbivores, the carnivores will follow. Lions recovered on their own, from fewer than six to over 210. Wild dogs returned from zero. The 2024 aerial survey confirmed what the ground teams already knew: the herbivore population now exceeds pre-war numbers.
Before = post-war nadir (~1994-2004). After = 2024-25 survey data. Sources: Gorongosa Restoration Project, BBVA Foundation, 60 Minutes. © Dancing with Lions
004 · The Four Pillars
Conservation alone never works. The model integrates everything.
Gorongosa is not a park with a community programme bolted on. It is a development engine that happens to contain a national park. Conservation, science, community, and tourism form a single integrated system where each pillar reinforces the others. The 868 coffee farmers on Mount Gorongosa are reforesting the mountain that feeds the rivers that fill the lake that sustains the wildlife that attracts the tourists that fund the community programmes that employ the people who protect the forest. The circle is complete.
Conservation
Anti-poaching, species reintroduction, habitat restoration, and 3M+ trees planted on Mt Gorongosa.
400,000 hectares protected
1,800 employees (99% Mozambican)
Zero poaching evidence in 2024 survey
Ranger network across entire park
Science
Research centre training Mozambican scientists. New species documented. Conservation decisions guided by data.
E.O. Wilson Biodiversity Lab
BioEd MSc programme — largest intake 2025
500+ bird species documented
Predator genetics research expanded
Community
The model that makes the park pay for itself by investing in people, not just fences.
1,800+ jobs — largest employer in Sofala
868 coffee farmers on Mt Gorongosa
$30M annual budget (Carr contributes $6M)
Schools, clinics, healthcare in buffer zone
Tourism
Tourism revenue reinvested into both conservation and community development.
3 camps: basic to Muzimu luxury lodge
Condé Nast Traveller "best in Africa" list
All-female ranger patrols launched 2024
Revenue funds community programmes
005 · The Stress Tests
What tried to kill it. And didn’t.
15 years. ~1M dead. 95% of wildlife killed. Elephants shot for ivory to fund arms. Mines everywhere.
Survived: Barely — habitat intact, seeds and soil survived, rivers kept flowing.
New civil conflict. Renamo fighters operate in park buffer zone. Staff threatened. Tourism halted.
Survived: Peace deal held. Operations disrupted but not destroyed. Park team stayed.
Category 2. 100,000 homes destroyed. Park infrastructure damaged. Flooding across Sofala.
Survived: Infrastructure rebuilt. Community programmes proved essential for recovery trust.
Tourism revenue collapsed. International travel frozen. Staff maintained on donor funding.
Survived: Carr Foundation absorbed shock. Diversified revenue (coffee, honey) helped.
Islamist insurgency in northern Mozambique. Not in Gorongosa but threatens national stability.
Survived: Ongoing. Park isolated from conflict zone. But national instability is structural risk.
006 · The Uncomfortable Question
How many Greg Carrs exist?
The Gorongosa model works. The data is unarguable. Ten thousand animals became 110,000 in twenty years. Six lions became two hundred. A park that was silent after war is now so loud with wildlife that the 60 Minutes crew could barely record their interviews for the noise of hippos. The BBVA Foundation gave it the Worldwide Award for Biodiversity Conservation in 2024. National Geographic calls it one of the Last Wild Places.
But the model has a name. Greg Carr. And the model has a number. $100 million, heading toward $200 million over 40 years. The current agreement expires in 2043. Carr contributes $6 million of the $30 million annual budget. The rest comes from donors, governments, and growing tourism revenue. When Carr was asked about sustainability, he dismissed the concern. He is confident the work will outlive him.
Maybe. The 2018 extension to 2043 suggests the Mozambican government believes in the partnership. The coffee project generates real income for real families. Tourism is growing. The park employs 1,800 people — the largest employer in Sofala Province — and 99% of them are Mozambican. The infrastructure is being built. The science programme is training Mozambican scientists who will work across the country.
But this is Mozambique. Cyclone Idai destroyed 100,000 homes in 2019. Cabo Delgado is burning in the north. The Renamo insurgency disrupted operations in 2013. Political instability is not a risk factor — it is the baseline condition. The model that works inside the park boundary requires stability that the country cannot always guarantee outside it.
The deeper question is replicability. Africa has dozens of destroyed or degraded parks that could theoretically undergo the same restoration. The habitat fundamentals are often intact — rivers, soil, seeds. What is missing is a 20-year commitment of $5-10 million per year, a government willing to sign a partnership agreement, and a funder who will absorb repeated shocks without flinching. Gorongosa proves the biology works. The question is whether the financing model can be systematised. African Parks is one answer — 23 parks across 13 countries, the management franchise model. But even African Parks depends on philanthropic funding.
The pattern repeats: the conservation works. The economics don't scale. Not because the economics are wrong — a single lion generates $1 million in tourism over its lifetime — but because the plumbing between tourism revenue and conservation funding is broken. Until that plumbing is fixed, every Gorongosa will need a Greg Carr. And there are not enough Greg Carrs.
If you give nature a chance, with good protection, it can recover spectacularly. In the case of lions, when the project began there were less than 30 individuals. Today the population numbers more than 210.
Marc Stalmans, Scientific Director, Gorongosa Restoration Project
007 · Connected Intelligence
Go deeper.
All five architectures compared. Gorongosa scored against Rwanda, Namibia, Lion Guardians, African Parks. What the successes share.
The systemic view. $29.3B in tourism GDP, $1.1B in conservation funding, $4B shortfall. The plumbing that's broken.
2,000 rhino. One failed auction. The largest wildlife translocation in history. And the man who bred them just got arrested.
Sources
Gorongosa Restoration Project — aerial wildlife survey 2024 (110,000+ animals)
BBVA Foundation Worldwide Award for Biodiversity Conservation (2024)
Marc Stalmans, Scientific Director: "fewer than 10,000 large animals → more than 100,000"
CBS 60 Minutes (2008, 2022) — Greg Carr interviews, park documentation
Al Jazeera (2024) — Ravaged by civil war, how a national park was restored
National Geographic — Gorongosa profiled as Last Wild Place
Gregory C. Carr: $100M+ committed, $200M estimated over 40 years
Gorongosa Coffee Project — 868 family farmers, shade-grown, reforestation
E.O. Wilson Biodiversity Laboratory — species documentation, MSc programme
Research, visualisation & analysis: Dancing with Lions
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