Module 150 · Conservation Economics

The Conservation
Playbook

Five mechanisms. Ten models. Four success stories. Six failure patterns. Every working conservation programme in Africa shares the same structural DNA. Every failure is missing the same pieces. This is the field guide to what actually works — and why it has not been replicated.

0

mechanisms that work

0

models scored

0k+

animals recovered (gorongosa)

0

rhino being rewilded

0.0%

of namibia conserved

001 · The Field

Where conservation is working. Where it is not. And why.

Green markers: models producing measurable wildlife recovery. Amber: community-led systems with proven results. Blue: African Parks franchise operations. Red: programmes that failed or are under critical threat. Each marker represents a different philosophy of how humans and wildlife can coexist — or cannot.

Philanthropic PPP
Community Model
Cultural Guardians
African Parks
Failed / Threatened
Debated

002 · The Five Architectures

Not one model. Five. Each built for different terrain.

The debate over “what works” in African conservation fails because it assumes a single answer. There are five distinct architectures, each optimised for different conditions. Namibia’s conservancy model requires democratic tradition and tourism markets. Rwanda’s permit model requires charismatic megafauna and political stability. Gorongosa’s philanthropic model requires a Greg Carr. The question is not which is best. The question is which fits the landscape, the people, and the political economy.

Community Conservancy

Archetype: Namibia

Give wildlife to communities. Legal rights. Democratic governance. Revenue stays local.

Strengths

Scale (20% of Namibia). Self-sustaining where tourism exists. Resilient governance.

Weaknesses

Requires tourism market. Drought-vulnerable. Not all conservancies profitable.

Best for: Countries with strong land rights, tourism potential, democratic tradition.

High-Value Permits

Archetype: Rwanda gorillas

Few visitors, high price, maximum revenue per encounter. Quality over quantity.

Strengths

Extraordinary per-species revenue. Clear conservation incentive. Global brand.

Weaknesses

Single-species risk. Political stability required. Excludes local visitors.

Best for: Charismatic megafauna in small, manageable habitats.

Cultural Guardians

Archetype: Lion Guardians

Recruit the threat. People who kill wildlife are best placed to protect it. Redirect culture, don't replace it.

Strengths

Transforms the root cause. Cost-effective ($1,200/guardian/year). Cultural buy-in.

Weaknesses

Donor-dependent salaries. Doesn't scale without external funding. Species-specific.

Best for: Human-wildlife conflict zones with strong pastoral/warrior cultures.

Philanthropic PPP

Archetype: Gorongosa

Single committed funder + government partnership. Long-term (20-40 year) investment. Total rebuild.

Strengths

10× wildlife recovery. Jobs, schools, clinics integrated. Coffee/agriculture diversification.

Weaknesses

Replicability — how many Greg Carrs exist? $200M commitment. Insurgency risk.

Best for: Post-conflict ecosystems with intact habitat but depleted wildlife.

Management Franchise

Archetype: African Parks

NGO takes long-term management mandate from government. Centralised expertise deployed to weak-state parks.

Strengths

23 parks, 13 countries, 20M hectares. Eliminates poaching in managed areas. 2,000 rhino rewilding.

Weaknesses

Government can revoke mandate. Top-down. Communities are beneficiaries, not owners.

Best for: Failed state parks. Countries with low institutional capacity but political will.

003 · The Scorecard

Five mechanisms. Ten models. Score them honestly.

Every successful conservation programme uses at least two of five mechanisms. Every failure uses zero or one. The mechanisms are not ideological. They are structural. They do not require agreement about values. They require agreement about architecture. Community ownership. Direct economic benefit. Professional management. Cultural integration. Governance. Mix at least two strongly and the wildlife recovers. Miss all five and you get South Africa’s captive lion industry: 10,000 lions, zero conservation value.

M1

Community ownership

M2

Direct economic benefit

M3

Professional management

M4

Cultural integration

M5

Governance structure

Rwanda Gorilla PermitsSUCCESS

Rwanda · Mountain gorilla

13/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: 254→1,063. Only great ape increasing.

Risk: Single-species dependency. Virunga instability.

Namibia ConservanciesSUCCESS

Namibia · Elephant, desert lion, black rhino

13/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: Elephants 7k→26k. 45.6% of country protected.

Risk: Drought vulnerability. Tourism-dependent revenue.

Lion GuardiansSUCCESS

Kenya/Tanzania · Lion

9/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: Lion killing -99%. Population tripled in Amboseli.

Risk: Donor-dependent. $100/month salaries from charity.

Gorongosa RestorationSUCCESS

Mozambique · Lion, elephant, buffalo, wild dog

9/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: 10,000→110,000+ animals. 10× recovery.

Risk: Single philanthropist ($100M+ from Carr). Insurgency.

African Parks NetworkSUCCESS

13 countries · White rhino, multiple

10/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: 23 parks, 20M hectares. 2,000 rhino rewilding.

Risk: Franchise model. Government partnerships can end.

Kenya Conservancies (NRT)PARTIAL

Kenya · Elephant, Grevy's zebra

10/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: 230 conservancies. 16% of Kenya. 83% of Mara wildlife.

Risk: Uneven quality. Some conservancies tokenistic.

Zimbabwe CAMPFIREPARTIAL

Zimbabwe · Elephant

6/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: Pioneer community model (1989). Revenue grew initially.

Risk: District councils captured revenue. Communities got ~15%.

Botswana Hunting BanPARTIAL

Botswana · Elephant (~130k)

6/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: Largest elephant population. Ban 2014, reversed 2019.

Risk: Community opposition to ban. Human-elephant conflict rose.

Trophy Hunting (general)FAILURE

Pan-African · Lion, elephant

1/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: 1.8% of tourism revenue. 3% reaches communities.

Risk: Structural failure. Removes prime breeders. Corrupt quotas.

SA Captive Lion IndustryFAILURE

South Africa · Lion (10-12k captive)

0/15

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Result: Zero conservation value. Canned hunting. Bone trade.

Risk: Total failure on every dimension.

Scores: 0 = absent, 1 = weak, 2 = moderate, 3 = strong. Assessment by Dancing with Lions based on published evaluations, NACSO, IUCN, AWF, Maliasili, and programme reports. © Dancing with Lions

004 · The Recoveries

They said it was impossible. The numbers say otherwise.

Gorongosa: 10,000 to 110,000 animals in twenty years. Rwanda: 254 gorillas to 1,063. Namibia: 7,000 elephants to 26,000. Amboseli: 42 lion kills per year to zero. Akagera: zero rhinos to 100. These are not anecdotes. They are measured population data from peer-reviewed surveys. The argument that “conservation doesn’t work in Africa” is empirically false. It works where the architecture exists.

11×

Philanthropic PPP

GorongosaMozambique
Large mammals (all) · 2004–2024

4.2×

High-value permits

Rwanda (gorilla)Rwanda
Mountain gorilla · 1981–2020

3.7×

Community conservancy

Namibia (elephant)Namibia
Elephant · 1990s–2025

42→0

Lion Guardians

Amboseli (lion)Kenya
Lion kills/year · 2006–2024

0→100

African Parks

AkageraRwanda
White rhino · 2017–2025

Community conservancy

Namibia (zebra)Namibia
Mountain zebra · 1990s–est.

35×

Philanthropic PPP

Gorongosa (lion)Mozambique
Lion · 2004–2025

+20%

NRT conservancy

Kenya (Grevy's)Kenya
Grevy's zebra · 2016–2024

005 · The Failure Patterns

Six ways to kill a conservation programme.

Failures are more instructive than successes because they repeat. Every failed programme in African conservation can be traced to one or more of six structural patterns. Revenue capture: the money exists but doesn’t reach communities. Single donor dependency: one exit collapses everything. Cultural imposition: conservation designed for Western donors, not local people. Perverse incentives: killing pays more than protecting. Conflict. Climate. Know the patterns, and you can diagnose any programme on earth in five minutes.

Revenue capture

Money enters national budgets and never returns to protected areas or communities. Tourism generates $29.3B; communities see fragments.

CAMPFIRE (district councils took 85%), most national parks across Africa

Single donor dependency

Programmes collapse when one funder exits. USAID shuttered 2025. COVID halved tourism overnight. Five donors = 54% of all funding.

Namibia conservancies during COVID, Gorongosa (Carr dependency), USAID exit 2025

Cultural imposition

Conservation designed in Western capitals, imposed on communities. Eviction model. Fortress parks. Fences, boots, guns.

Amboseli evictions (1974), Serengeti Maasai removals, colonial park model

Perverse incentives

Economic structures that reward killing over protecting. Zero cost to kill a lion. Trophy hunting removes prime breeders.

Trophy hunting quota corruption, SA captive lions, lion bone trade

Conflict & instability

War destroys conservation overnight. Gorongosa lost 95% of wildlife in civil war. DRC's Virunga under perpetual threat.

Mozambique civil war, DRC M23, Sahel junta belt, CAR

Climate disruption

Drought kills prey, prey loss kills predators, predators kill livestock, communities kill predators. Spiral.

Namibia 11-year drought (desert lions 180→57), Kunene 723-animal cull

006 · The Pattern

What the successes share. What the failures lack.

Rwanda charges $1,500 for one hour with the gorillas. Namibia put environmental protection in its constitution. In Amboseli, the warriors who once killed lions now name them. In Gorongosa, six lions became two hundred. At Akagera, rhinos now live in a country that twenty-five years ago was synonymous with genocide. African Parks manages twenty-three national parks across thirteen countries and is rewilding two thousand rhinos. These are not similar programmes. They share almost nothing in method, philosophy, scale, or funding model.

What they share is structural: the people who bear the cost of living with wildlife receive direct, tangible, personal benefit from its survival. In Rwanda, communities get 10% of gorilla revenue. In Namibia, conservancy committees distribute hunting and tourism income to members. In Amboseli, warriors get a $100/month salary. In Gorongosa, 1,800 people have jobs. In African Parks sites, $4.9 million flowed to communities in 2024 alone.

The mechanisms vary. The principle does not. When a Maasai warrior loses three cows to a lion and receives nothing in return, he kills the next lion. When the same warrior receives a salary to protect lions, he intercepts the hunting party. This is not ideology. It is arithmetic.

The failures share an equally consistent pattern: money exists in the system but does not reach the people who live with the animals. CAMPFIRE generated revenue but district councils captured it. Trophy hunting generates 1.8% of tourism revenue; 3% reaches communities. South Africa's captive lion industry exists entirely outside the conservation economy. National park gate fees enter treasury accounts and are never seen again by the communities on the park boundary.

Climate and conflict add complexity but they do not change the underlying logic. Namibia's 11-year drought stressed the conservancy system. COVID halved its revenue. A 723-animal cull fed communities. But the system survived because the governance structure existed. Where governance is absent — in the Sahel, in eastern DRC, in Cabo Delgado — wildlife disappears regardless of how much money is spent.

The most uncomfortable insight: the model that produces the best community-level outcomes — Namibia's conservancies — relies partly on trophy hunting, which generates approximately 50% of conservancy benefits. Ninety-one percent of community members oppose a ban. Western donors frequently condition aid on anti-hunting policies. The communities who live with elephants disagree with the people who fund their protection. This contradiction is not going away.

The second most uncomfortable insight: conservation that works costs almost nothing compared to the value it protects. A Lion Guardian costs $1,200 per year to employ. The lion he protects generates $1 million in tourism revenue over its lifetime. The return on investment is 800:1. But the return is captured by lodges and park fees. The investment comes from donors in the United States and Europe. The economics are inverted. Fix the plumbing and the funding problem largely solves itself.

Most of Africa’s biodiversity depends on lands owned and managed by local communities. These communities are on the front line, and their conservation practices are key to sustaining and restoring healthy ecosystems. Nearly two-thirds of Kenya’s large mammals are found in communal and private lands, not in state-protected areas.

Fred Nelson, CEO of Maliasili

007 · Connected Intelligence

Go deeper.

The Conservation Deficit

The systemic view. $29.3B in wildlife tourism GDP, $1.1B in conservation funding, $4B annual shortfall. Six visualizations mapping the architecture that doesn't exist.

The Lion Guardians

Amboseli-Tsavo, Kenya. The cultural guardian model in full detail. 42 lions killed in 2006. Zero in 2024. The warriors' own idea. The act of naming as cultural transformation.

The Namibia Model

The community conservancy architecture. 86 conservancies. 45.6% of the country. The pioneer stories, the revenue debate, and the stress test: drought + COVID + cull.

The Gorilla Dividend

Rwanda's high-value permit model. $1,500 per hour. Population 254→1,063. $200M revenue from 0.1% of land. The only great ape that is increasing.

The Lion Economics

Continental lion economics. $20.5B safari market. 200,000→23,000. Dead vs alive valuations. Why the math works but the plumbing doesn't.

The Last Lions

The Barbary lion. What happens when nobody builds the architecture. 100,000 years in North Africa. Extinct by the 1960s. ~90 descendants in zoos.

Sources

NACSO — State of Community Conservation in Namibia (annual reports 1998–2025)

Maliasili (2024) — Community conservancies in Africa: scale, success, and comparative data

African Parks — Annual Report 2024. 23 parks, 13 countries, 20M hectares

Rwanda Development Board — Gorilla permit revenue, tourism statistics 2024

Lion Guardians — Programme monitoring data, efficacy studies (2007–2024)

Gorongosa Restoration Project / BBVA Foundation Award (2024) — 10k→110k+ animals

Indufor / Campaign for Nature / Pew (2025) — State of International 30×30 Funding

Funston, Lindsey et al. (2025) — Range-wide assessment of threats to African lion

Heydinger et al. (2024) — First systematic survey of desert-adapted lions, NW Namibia

Kenya Wildlife Service / WRTI — National Wildlife Census 2025

TRAFFIC / IUCN (2025) — CITES CoP20 African rhino status report

Yale E360 (2024) — How African Communities Are Taking Lead on Protecting Wildlife

Research, visualisation & analysis: Dancing with Lions

© Dancing with Lions 2026