Data Module · Security & Conflict
The Shadow State
Al-Shabaab, IS Somalia & the Horn of Africa · 2006–Present
$200M+
Al-Shabaab annual revenue
7,000–12,000
Fighters
6,224
Fatalities past year
40 km
From Mogadishu (Jul 2025)
587
Single Mogadishu bombing (2017)
001 · Actor Database
Al-Qaeda’s wealthiest affiliate. ISIS’s global bank.
Al-Shabaab
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen
Founded
2006 (from ICU militia wing)
Personnel
7,000–12,000
Leader
Ahmed Diriye (Abu Ubaidah)
Revenue
$200M+/year — extortion, taxation, piracy, charcoal
Status (2025)
Offensive — Shabelle Offensive (Feb 2025+). Recaptured towns 40km from Mogadishu. 50% more attacks/month in 2025 vs 2024.
IS Somalia
Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS)
Founded
2015 (Al-Shabaab defectors)
Personnel
~1,000 (up from 200 in 2018)
Leader
Abdulqadir Mumin
Revenue
Global ISIS financial/admin hub (UN)
Status (2025)
Growing — ISIS global HQ. 1,065 fatalities linked past year (vs <100 previously). Under US/UAE/Puntland pressure.
ASWJ (Mozambique)
Ahl al-Sunna wal Jama'a
Founded
2017
Personnel
200–300
Leader
Fragmented
Revenue
Gold mining raids, extortion
Status (2025)
Resilient — exploiting post-SADC withdrawal. Attacking Rwandan forces 2025.
002 · The Economics
$200 million a year. A state in everything but name.
Al-Shabaab taxes businesses in Mogadishu — the capital of the government fighting it. Its revenue rivals Somalia’s internal government revenue. This is not an insurgency. It is a shadow state.
| Metric | Value | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Shabaab annual revenue | $200M+ | Rivals Somalia's government revenue | Africa Center / UN |
| Primary: extortion/taxation | ~60–70% | Businesses, ports, roads, telecoms | UN Panel of Experts |
| Charcoal trade | $40–80M/year | UN-banned export continues to Gulf | UN Monitoring Group |
| Piracy (resumed) | 47 events | Gulf of Aden since Nov 2023 | Africa Center |
| Taxation reach | Into Mogadishu | Capital businesses pay al-Shabaab alongside government taxes | Various / UN |
| IS Somalia global role | Financial + admin hub | ISIS's most important non-combat node globally | UN reports 2024–25 |
| IS Somalia fighters | ~1,000 | Up from ~200 in 2018 — 5× growth | Africa Center |
| Houthi arms pipeline | Active | Al-Shabaab receiving weapons | Soufan Center |
003 · The 2025 Offensive
Five months. Years of progress reversed.
Feb 2025
Shabelle Offensive launches. Captures Balcad (30km from Mogadishu) during Ethiopian PM's visit.
Symbolic humiliation.
Mar 2025
Hotel siege. Mortar rounds hit Mogadishu airport. President narrowly escapes bomb.
Can reach capital's most protected zone.
Apr–Jun 2025
Rapid advances. Recaptures Adan Yabaal (former operational hub).
Reversing 2022–23 gains.
Jul 7, 2025
Moqokori captured. 47 soldiers killed. Sets up roadblocks, collects taxes.
Governance installation.
Jul 14, 2025
Tardo captured without resistance. Forces withdrew.
Military morale collapse.
Jul 20, 2025
Sabiid and Anole recaptured (40km from Mogadishu). Strategic triangle formed.
Closest to Mogadishu since 2011–12.
004 · Foreign Intervention
Everyone involved. Nobody winning.
| Actor | Role | Status (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| AU (AMISOM → ATMIS → AUSSOM) | ~18,000 troops at peak. Transitioning to Somali control by 2029. | AUSSOM launched Jan 2025. Burundi withdrew. Tenuous. |
| United States | Drone strikes. Special forces. Training. | Trump escalated strikes targeting both IS Somalia and al-Shabaab. |
| Türkiye | Military base. Training. SADAT PMC deployed 2025. | Key bilateral partner. |
| Ethiopia | ~4,000 troops. Largest contributor. Somaliland MOU tensions. | Cooperation resumed but fragile. |
| UAE | Airstrikes against IS Somalia in Puntland. | Focused on IS Somalia, not al-Shabaab. |
| Rwanda | 4,000 troops in Mozambique. TotalEnergies project. | SADC ended Jul 2024. Facing ASWJ attacks. |
| Houthis (Yemen) | Weapons pipeline to al-Shabaab. | Active. Weapons inflow increasing. |
005 · Timeline
1980s — 2025
Late 1980s
Somali Afghan mujahideen veterans return. Found AIAI.
1991
Somali state collapses. Civil war.
2006
ICU captures Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab is enforcement wing.
2006–09
Ethiopian invasion. Al-Shabaab becomes resistance movement.
2007
AMISOM deployed.
2008
Al-Shabaab affiliates with al-Qaeda.
2011–13
AU/Somali coalition recaptures Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab retreats.
2013
Westgate mall attack, Nairobi — 67 killed.
2015
IS Somalia formed. Garissa University — 148 killed.
2017
Mogadishu truck bomb — 587 killed. Deadliest terrorist attack in African history.
2022
Counteroffensive with US/Türkiye support. 215+ locations recaptured.
2023
Al-Shabaab counteroffensive. Retakes Galmudug. Gains stall.
2024
ATMIS drawdown. Piracy resumes. IS Somalia fatalities spike to 1,065.
2025
Shabelle Offensive. 40km from Mogadishu. AUSSOM launches. Trump escalates strikes.
006 · Connected Intelligence
The pattern.
JNIM (al-Qaeda) in the Sahel and al-Shabaab (al-Qaeda) in the Horn operate under the same global franchise. Both build quasi-governance systems. Both are winning against states. Both benefit from the same dynamic: foreign intervention collapses, jihadists fill the vacuum. The playbook is identical.
Russia relocated military equipment from Syria to Libya after Assad fell (Dec 2024). Libya provides logistical and financial support to Sahel-based groups. The Houthis supply al-Shabaab with weapons. Conflict supply chains cross continents — Syria to Libya to the Sahel. Yemen to Somalia. Wagner gold laundering routes run parallel to weapons pipelines flowing the other direction.
IS Somalia has emerged as ISIS global financial and administrative headquarters. ISWAP in the Lake Chad Basin receives training and tech transfer from the global ISIS network — drones, IEDs. The Horn and the Lake are connected through ISIS infrastructure, not geography. Money flows from Puntland. Technology flows to Borno.
Sources & Attribution
Data compilation, cartography, and analysis: Dancing with Lions
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