Module 050 · Demographic Intelligence
The Marriage
Equation
Fewer marriages. Later marriages. More divorces. A country renegotiating its oldest contract.
In 1960, the average Moroccan woman married at 17. By 2018, she married at 25.5 — if she married at all. Marriages have dropped 25% in a decade. Divorces have surged 50%. For every 100 marriage applications, 50 divorce cases are now filed. The 2004 Moudawana reform gave women self-guardianship, divorce rights, and custody priority for the first time. Child marriages have fallen from 16% to 8%. One in five households is now led by a woman. The institution hasn't collapsed. It's being renegotiated.
249K
Marriages registered (2024)
65K
Divorces registered (2024)
25.5
Average age, women first marriage
31.9
Average age, men first marriage
50:100
Divorce filings per 100 marriages
89%
Divorces by mutual consent (2024)
8.4%
Child marriage rate (2024, was 16%)
19.2%
Households led by women (2024)
Section I
The Divergence
Marriages peaked around 2010–2012 and have been declining since. Divorces have risen steadily. The lines are converging. COVID-19 cratered marriages in 2020 but barely dented divorces — couples delayed weddings, not separations.
Section II
The Delay
In 1960, women married at 17. Men at 24. By 2018, the gap had narrowed to 6.4 years (women 25.5, men 31.9). The shift happened in both urban and rural areas simultaneously. Education is the single biggest driver — women who complete secondary school marry 4–6 years later.
Section III
The Numbers Behind the Numbers
DIVORCE CASES PER 100 MARRIAGE REQUESTS
Source: CSPJ (Superior Council of the Judiciary). 50+ means more than half of all marriages face a divorce filing.
CHILD MARRIAGE (% WOMEN 20–24 MARRIED BEFORE 18)
CONSENSUAL VS JUDICIAL DIVORCE (%)
Section IV
The Structural Shift
Women staying single longer. Women living alone. Women leading households. Three indicators of the same transformation.
WOMEN UNMARRIED AT 50
WOMEN LIVING ALONE
HOUSEHOLDS LED BY WOMEN
Section V
The Moudawana
Morocco's family code — the legal framework governing marriage, divorce, custody, and inheritance. Reformed three times. Each time more progressive. Each time contested.
First Moudawana codified. Reflects patriarchal norms. Women under guardianship of father or husband. Marriage age: 15 for women.
Union de l'Action Féminine launches One Million Signatures campaign for Moudawana reform.
Minor reforms. First time the Moudawana is officially acknowledged as changeable, not sacred text.
Competing marches in Casablanca and Rabat — feminists vs Islamists — on women's rights. Over 1 million march.
Casablanca bombings. Backlash against fundamentalism. King forms royal commission to rewrite Moudawana.
Revolutionary Moudawana reform. Marriage age raised to 18. Women gain self-guardianship, divorce rights, custody priority, polygamy restrictions. Hailed as most progressive family code in the Arab world.
New constitution strengthens women's rights. Response to Arab Spring.
Law criminalizing violence against women enacted.
King Mohammed VI calls for comprehensive Moudawana revision.
Proposed reforms released: abolish child marriage loophole, shared custody, recognize domestic work as economic contribution, restrict polygamy further.
Reading Notes
The Gate That Opened
Critics warned the 2004 Moudawana would cause divorce rates to skyrocket. They did. But as one researcher noted: many women were suffering, and the reform was like a gate that finally opened. The rise in divorce isn't a sign of social breakdown — it's a sign that exit became possible.
The Child Marriage Loophole
The 2004 law set marriage age at 18 but allowed judges to grant exceptions. In 2019, 32,000 exemption requests were filed and 81% approved. By 2024, requests dropped to under 9,000 — culture shifting faster than law. The proposed 2024 reform aims to close the loophole entirely.
The 50% Statistic
For every 100 marriage requests, 50 divorce cases are filed. This doesn't mean 50% of marriages end in divorce — it means the annual flow of divorce filings is half the annual flow of new marriages. Many divorces are from marriages contracted years earlier. But the ratio is the signal: the institution is being renegotiated in real time.
Sources
Marriage & divorce data: HCP (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), "Les Femmes Marocaines en Chiffres" (2023, 2024). Statista (Number of Marriages in Morocco 2018–2022; Number of Divorces 2004–2021). 2024 marriage figure (249,089): Justice Minister Abdellatif Ouahbi, December 2024 parliamentary session (Barlaman Today). Age at first marriage: HCP/Statista (Average age at first marriage 2004–2018); Morocco World News (2019). Child marriage: HCP (2024), Barlaman Today (Oct 2025); Morocco World News (Dec 2025); Wilson Center; Girls Not Brides. Divorce ratio (50:100): CSPJ via Morocco World News (June 2023). Consensual divorce: HCP via Hespress (Oct 2025). Women-led households: HCP via Barlaman Today (Oct 2025). Moudawana: Carnegie Endowment (2025), Centre for Public Impact, TIMEP, EuroMed Rights, Fund for Global Human Rights, NYU, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, Spheres of Influence. Marriage trend estimates (pre-2018): editorial interpolation based on HCP reporting and Statista anchors. Individual year figures before 2018 are approximations from trend reporting, not precise counts.
© Dancing with Lions · dancingwithlions.com · Pre-2018 marriage volume data is estimated from trend reporting. This visualization may not be reproduced without visible attribution.