Module 067 · Currency Intelligence
The Dirham's
Journey
20 years of MAD/EUR and MAD/USD — annotated with what caused every move
The Moroccan dirham is not a free-floating currency. It's pegged to a basket: 60% euro, 40% US dollar — set by Bank Al-Maghrib. The band was ±0.3% until January 2018, when Morocco began a gradual flexibilization: first to ±2.5%, then to ±5% in March 2020. The next phase — full delinking from the basket — is planned for 2026. Every movement in the line below tells a story: the 2008 financial crisis, the Arab Spring, COVID border closures, the Ukraine war oil shock, the earthquake, the World Cup infrastructure boom. The dirham barely moves — and that's the point. Stability is Morocco's economic religion.
60/40
EUR/USD basket weight
±5%
current trading band
$36B
FX reserves (2025)
2026
planned next phase
Exchange Rates · 2005–2025
The Story Behind the Line
Every dot on the chart is an event. Click to expand.
Reading Notes
Why the lines barely move
Morocco's exchange rate was fixed — ±0.3% — until January 2018. That's not a trading range; it's a lock. The dirham moved only when the euro and dollar moved against each other. When the euro weakened (2012 debt crisis, 2015), EUR/MAD dropped. When the dollar surged (2022 Fed hikes), USD/MAD spiked above 10. The dirham itself was anchored. The chart is really a chart of EUR/USD refracted through Morocco's basket.
The basket
Until 2015, the dirham was 80% euro and 20% dollar. The reweighting to 60/40 was a structural shift — Morocco was acknowledging that its dollar-denominated trade (phosphates exports, energy imports, US investment) had grown. The change immediately made the dirham more responsive to dollar movements. The 2022 USD surge would have been far less visible under the old 80/20 basket.
The flexibilization
Three phases: ±2.5% (January 2018), ±5% (March 2020), and planned delinking (2026). Each step was deliberately undramatic. The first phase barely moved the rate. The second coincided with COVID — and even then, the dirham stayed orderly. The goal is not dramatic devaluation but a shock absorber: when crises hit, the dirham can flex instead of forcing the central bank to burn reserves defending a rigid peg.
The PLL that nobody draws
Morocco has maintained an IMF Precautionary and Liquidity Line since 2012. Currently ~$5 billion. It has never been drawn. The line exists purely as a signal: Morocco is stable enough to qualify, disciplined enough not to need it. In the language of currency markets, this is the equivalent of having a security guard who never needs to do anything — his presence is the point.
Sources: Bank Al-Maghrib: "Reform of the Exchange Rate Regime" (bkam.ma). Exchange-rates.org: EUR/MAD and USD/MAD annual averages 2005–2025. Investing.com: EUR/MAD historical data. Xe.com: MAD/EUR and MAD/USD 10-year charts. IMF: Morocco — Precautionary and Liquidity Line reviews. Capital.com: "Moroccan Dirham Forecast." Wikipedia: "Moroccan dirham." Morocco World News: "Morocco to Loosen Dirham Peg by 2026." MIPA Institute: "Why did Morocco's New Currency Policy Falter?"
© Dancing with Lions. All rights reserved. This visualization may not be reproduced without visible attribution.