Data Module 049 — Environmental Intelligence

Before
the Sahara

The land between Atlas and sand. Two-thirds of Morocco’s oases have vanished in a century. 15 million date palms reduced to 6 million. NDVI vegetation data, climate zones, oasis collapse, and the green projects trying to hold the line.

93%Of territory affected by desertification
$2.1BAnnual economic cost of land degradation
Of oasis area lost in the past century
15M→6MDate palms remaining

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001 — Vegetation Signal

NDVI: The Land Speaks in Green

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index measures how green the land is from space. Higher values mean more living vegetation. Watch what happens to Morocco’s pre-Saharan belt between 2018 and 2022 — and then the 2025 recovery.

1984
0.18
1988
0.15
1992
0.19
1996
0.20
2000
0.17
2004
0.21
2008
0.19
2010
0.24
2012
0.20
2015
0.23
2018
0.16
2020
0.14
2022
0.13
2024
0.15
2025
0.22
Pre-drought
Drought (2018–2024)
Recovery (2025)

The oases of Morocco have lost two-thirds of their surface area in the past century. Date palms: from 15 million to 6 million. The desert doesn’t advance — the green retreats.

002 — Why It’s Happening

Six Drivers of Collapse

01

Drought

7-year drought (2018–2025). Pre-Saharan rainfall dropped below 100 mm/year. 80% of farmland is rain-fed.

02

Overgrazing

46 million hectares of rangelands under pressure. Livestock numbers exceed carrying capacity across the pre-Sahara and eastern plateaus.

03

Groundwater depletion

Illegal wells proliferating. Motorized pumps lowering water tables 8m+ in some oases. Draa River nearly stopped flowing.

04

Deforestation

Firewood collection, land clearing for agriculture. 5.8M ha of forests remaining — down from historical extent.

05

Dam impacts

Upstream dams retain water that once sustained downstream oases. Ternata oasis directly correlated with reservoir levels.

06

Climate change

Temperatures rising 1.5× faster than global average in North Africa. Longer dry spells. Intense but rare rainfall events cause flash floods, not recharge.

003 — The Oases

Six Oases on the Edge

Oases cover 15% of Morocco and are home to 2.2 million people. They are the ecological barrier against the Sahara. When they fall, everything north of them is exposed.

Critical

Draa Valley

وادي درعة

Was 4,575 km² → now ~1,342 km²

Dam upstream, groundwater depletion, 8m water table drop (2012–2021)

Threatened

Tafilalet (Errachidia)

تافيلالت

Largest oasis in Morocco

Fires destroyed thousands of palms (2,485 between 2008–2010, 5,500 in 2021)

Degrading

Skoura

سكورة

UNESCO Biosphere Reserve

Desertified lands expanded +168% (1991–2021). Cultivated land shrank −30%.

Critical

Zagora / Ternata

زاكورة

Ternata oasis ~26,000 ha

Draa River flows less and less frequently. Illegal well drilling.

Moderate

Tinghir / Todra

تنغير

Todra Gorge oasis system

Tourism water demand. Upstream irrigation pressure.

Threatened

Figuig

فكيك

Eastern border oasis

Algeria border tensions. Water table declining. Isolation.

004 — Holding the Line

Six Green Projects

Ongoing since 2001

National Action Plan (PANLCD)

National

Morocco's UNCCD framework. Coordinates reforestation, soil conservation, sustainable agriculture, and desertification monitoring across all zones.

Active

Oasis Zone Strategy (ANDZOA)

Oasis provinces (~208,000 km²)

Dedicated agency for oasis and argan zones. Drip irrigation subsidies (11,770 ha equipped). Water savings of ~38M m³/year. Palm replanting programs.

Ongoing

National Reforestation Plan

40,000 ha/year target

Managed by ANEF (Agence Nationale des Eaux et Forêts). Focus on watershed protection, dune fixation, and restoring degraded rangelands.

~30% complete as of 2024

Great Green Wall (GGW)

Continental (11 countries)

Africa's flagship anti-desertification initiative. 100M ha restoration target by 2030. Morocco participates in northern fringe. $14.3B pledged (2021). 30M ha restored continent-wide.

Active

Dune Fixation Programs

Southern Morocco

Planting tamarisk, acacia, and native vegetation to stabilize moving sand dunes. Protecting oases from sand encroachment. Community-managed.

Planned

Iriqui Lake Restoration

Iriqui National Park

ANEF plan to divert water to restore the dry Iriqui lakebed. Reintroduce addax antelope and red-necked ostrich. Anti-desertification + ecotourism.

The Great Green Wall was supposed to be 8,000 km of trees across Africa. It became something smarter — a mosaic of land use practices. Not a wall. A way of living with the edge.

005 — The Numbers

Morocco’s Land at a Glance

71M ha

Total land area

8% forest, 13% farmland, 65% pasture + desert

93%

Territory affected

Desertification at varying severity (PANLCD)

5.5M ha

Under water erosion

Sloping areas losing topsoil

1.5M

Households at risk

Livelihoods depend on degrading land

35%

Rural population in severe degradation zones

Heavily dependent on forest/range resources

2.2M

Oasis population

~6% of national total. Agriculture-dependent.

40,000 ha

Annual reforestation target

ANEF national program

<100 mm

Saharan rainfall

Southern 35% of territory

Sources

IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land — Chapter 3: Desertification

MDPI Land (2025) — Estimating the Economic Cost of Land Degradation in Morocco

Nature Scientific Reports (2023) — Detecting desertification in the ancient oases of southern Morocco

Geographical (2025) — The lost oases of Morocco (Ministry of Agriculture data)

UNCCD & Morocco PANLCD (National Action Plan to Combat Desertification, 2001–present)

ANDZOA — Oasis Zone Development Agency (2022 data)

NASA Earth Observatory (2024) — Sahara greening event, MODIS NDVI

FAO Action Against Desertification — Great Green Wall implementation reports

Springer Geoenvironmental Disasters (2019) — Drought and desertification in Draa Valley

ScienceDirect (2022) — LULC monitoring, Ternata oasis 1991–2021

UNFCCC (Morocco submission) — Loss and damage in oasis zones

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This visualization may not be reproduced without visible attribution.

Sources: UNESCO, geological surveys