Data Module 049 — Environmental Intelligence
Before
the Sahara
The land between Atlas and sand. Two-thirds of Morocco’s oases have vanished in a century. 15 million date palms reduced to 6 million. NDVI vegetation data, climate zones, oasis collapse, and the green projects trying to hold the line.
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001 — Vegetation Signal
NDVI: The Land Speaks in Green
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index measures how green the land is from space. Higher values mean more living vegetation. Watch what happens to Morocco’s pre-Saharan belt between 2018 and 2022 — and then the 2025 recovery.
The oases of Morocco have lost two-thirds of their surface area in the past century. Date palms: from 15 million to 6 million. The desert doesn’t advance — the green retreats.
002 — Why It’s Happening
Six Drivers of Collapse
Drought
7-year drought (2018–2025). Pre-Saharan rainfall dropped below 100 mm/year. 80% of farmland is rain-fed.
Overgrazing
46 million hectares of rangelands under pressure. Livestock numbers exceed carrying capacity across the pre-Sahara and eastern plateaus.
Groundwater depletion
Illegal wells proliferating. Motorized pumps lowering water tables 8m+ in some oases. Draa River nearly stopped flowing.
Deforestation
Firewood collection, land clearing for agriculture. 5.8M ha of forests remaining — down from historical extent.
Dam impacts
Upstream dams retain water that once sustained downstream oases. Ternata oasis directly correlated with reservoir levels.
Climate change
Temperatures rising 1.5× faster than global average in North Africa. Longer dry spells. Intense but rare rainfall events cause flash floods, not recharge.
003 — The Oases
Six Oases on the Edge
Oases cover 15% of Morocco and are home to 2.2 million people. They are the ecological barrier against the Sahara. When they fall, everything north of them is exposed.
Draa Valley
وادي درعة
Was 4,575 km² → now ~1,342 km²
Dam upstream, groundwater depletion, 8m water table drop (2012–2021)
Tafilalet (Errachidia)
تافيلالت
Largest oasis in Morocco
Fires destroyed thousands of palms (2,485 between 2008–2010, 5,500 in 2021)
Skoura
سكورة
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
Desertified lands expanded +168% (1991–2021). Cultivated land shrank −30%.
Zagora / Ternata
زاكورة
Ternata oasis ~26,000 ha
Draa River flows less and less frequently. Illegal well drilling.
Tinghir / Todra
تنغير
Todra Gorge oasis system
Tourism water demand. Upstream irrigation pressure.
Figuig
فكيك
Eastern border oasis
Algeria border tensions. Water table declining. Isolation.
004 — Holding the Line
Six Green Projects
National Action Plan (PANLCD)
National
Morocco's UNCCD framework. Coordinates reforestation, soil conservation, sustainable agriculture, and desertification monitoring across all zones.
Oasis Zone Strategy (ANDZOA)
Oasis provinces (~208,000 km²)
Dedicated agency for oasis and argan zones. Drip irrigation subsidies (11,770 ha equipped). Water savings of ~38M m³/year. Palm replanting programs.
National Reforestation Plan
40,000 ha/year target
Managed by ANEF (Agence Nationale des Eaux et Forêts). Focus on watershed protection, dune fixation, and restoring degraded rangelands.
Great Green Wall (GGW)
Continental (11 countries)
Africa's flagship anti-desertification initiative. 100M ha restoration target by 2030. Morocco participates in northern fringe. $14.3B pledged (2021). 30M ha restored continent-wide.
Dune Fixation Programs
Southern Morocco
Planting tamarisk, acacia, and native vegetation to stabilize moving sand dunes. Protecting oases from sand encroachment. Community-managed.
Iriqui Lake Restoration
Iriqui National Park
ANEF plan to divert water to restore the dry Iriqui lakebed. Reintroduce addax antelope and red-necked ostrich. Anti-desertification + ecotourism.
The Great Green Wall was supposed to be 8,000 km of trees across Africa. It became something smarter — a mosaic of land use practices. Not a wall. A way of living with the edge.
005 — The Numbers
Morocco’s Land at a Glance
71M ha
Total land area
8% forest, 13% farmland, 65% pasture + desert
93%
Territory affected
Desertification at varying severity (PANLCD)
5.5M ha
Under water erosion
Sloping areas losing topsoil
1.5M
Households at risk
Livelihoods depend on degrading land
35%
Rural population in severe degradation zones
Heavily dependent on forest/range resources
2.2M
Oasis population
~6% of national total. Agriculture-dependent.
40,000 ha
Annual reforestation target
ANEF national program
<100 mm
Saharan rainfall
Southern 35% of territory
Sources
IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land — Chapter 3: Desertification
MDPI Land (2025) — Estimating the Economic Cost of Land Degradation in Morocco
Nature Scientific Reports (2023) — Detecting desertification in the ancient oases of southern Morocco
Geographical (2025) — The lost oases of Morocco (Ministry of Agriculture data)
UNCCD & Morocco PANLCD (National Action Plan to Combat Desertification, 2001–present)
ANDZOA — Oasis Zone Development Agency (2022 data)
NASA Earth Observatory (2024) — Sahara greening event, MODIS NDVI
FAO Action Against Desertification — Great Green Wall implementation reports
Springer Geoenvironmental Disasters (2019) — Drought and desertification in Draa Valley
ScienceDirect (2022) — LULC monitoring, Ternata oasis 1991–2021
UNFCCC (Morocco submission) — Loss and damage in oasis zones
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This visualization may not be reproduced without visible attribution.
Sources: UNESCO, geological surveys